Three: U.S. Foreign Policy Change toward Cuba under Obama

Author:
Klaus Brummer
Publication Date:
26 Jul 2024
Pages:
54–106
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51952/9781529237726.ch003
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This chapter opens with a discussion of whether U.S.-Cuba policy during the Obama administration actually qualifies as an instance of major policy change. It suggests that this is indeed the case as per Charles Hermann’s typology. The chapter then explores whether President Obama had a systematic and predictable effect on the redirection of U.S. policy toward Cuba. To that end, the chapter first examines whether Obama considered the Cuba policy of his predecessors as a major policy failure, which is considered as main trigger for the initiation of policy change (“triggering change”). The chapter then identifies Obama’s political beliefs with respect to Cuba. Based on a comparison with the beliefs of his immediate predecessor George W. Bush, the chapter infers the direction of policy change that U.S. foreign policy should have taken based on Obama’s “Cuba beliefs” and examines whether those expectations align with the empirical record (“guiding change”). Finally, the chapter ascertains Obama’s leadership traits. On that basis, it develops expectations on how Obama should have gone about putting his goal of changing U.S.-Cuba policy into practice and finally matches those expectations with the empirical record (“implementing change”).

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  • White House (2016a) Remarks of President Barack Obama—State of the Union Address as Delivered, January 13, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/01/12/remarks-president-barack-obama-%E2%80%93-prepared-delivery-state-union-address (Accessed December 1, 2023).

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  • White House (2016b) Press Briefing by Press Secretary Josh Earnest and Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes, 2/18/2016, February 18, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/02/18/press-briefing-press-secretary-josh-earnest-and-deputy-national-security (Accessed December 1, 2023).

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  • White House (2016c) Fact Sheet: United States-Cuba Relationship, March 21, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/03/21/fact-sheet-united-states-cuba-relationship (Accessed November 14, 2023).

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  • White House (2016d) Press Briefing by Senior Administration Officials – Havana, Cuba, 3/21/2015, March 22, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/03/22/press-briefing-senior-administration-officials-havana-cuba-3212016 (Accessed December 5, 2023).

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  • White House (2016e) President Obama Announces another Key Administration Post, September 27, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/09/27/president-obama-announces-another-key-administration-post (Accessed December 5, 2023).

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  • White House (2016f) Statement by the President on the Presidential Policy Directive on Cuba, October 14, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/10/14/statement-president-presidential-policy-directive-cuba (Accessed December 6, 2023).

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  • White House (2021b) Remarks by President Biden at Meeting with Cuban American Leaders, July 30, Available from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/07/30/remarks-by-president-biden-at-meeting-with-cuban-american-leaders/ (Accessed December 22, 2023).

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