Five: Conclusion and Outlook

Author:
Klaus Brummer
Publication Date:
26 Jul 2024
Pages:
117–126
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51952/9781529237726.ch005
Restricted access
Rights and permissions Cite this chapter
Buy article/chapter (
GBP  £20.00
)

This book introduced a leader-centered theory of foreign policy change and applied said theory to examine changes in the U.S.-Cuba policy during the Obama administration. This concluding section proceeds in three steps. It first summarizes the argument of the book. It then briefly explores the extent to which the proposed theory can account for additional changes, in the form of reversals of Obama’s policy changes, that were introduced by his successor Donald Trump. The discussion concludes with avenues for future research.

  • Agence France Presse [AFP] (2004) Bush Attacks Kerry on Cuba Policy, August 28.

  • Agence France Presse [AFP] (2008) Obama’s Cuba Policy Could Woo Key Exile Voters, February 26.

  • Agence France Presse [AFP] (2009) Obama Team Hopes Cuba Seizes Chance to Change, January 13.

  • Agence France Presse [AFP] (2013a) Obama-Castro Handshake a Hopeful Gesture: Cuba Gov’t Website, December 10.

  • Agence France Presse [AFP] (2013b) Republicans Thumb Obama for Castro Handshake, December 10.

  • Agence France Presse [AFP] (2015) Obama Meets Raul Castro in New York, September 29.

  • Allison, G.T. (1971) Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, Boston: Little, Brown and Company.

  • Allison, G.T. and Zelikow, P. (1999) Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (2nd edn), New York: Longman.

  • Anderson, J.L. (2017) Donald Trump Reverses Barack Obama’s Cuba Policy, The New Yorker, June 16, Available from: https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/donald-trump-reverses-barack-obamas-cuba-policy (Accessed December 20, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Associated Press [AP] (2007) Obama Offer to Meet Rogue Leaders Touches Off Firestorm and Clashes with Clinton, July 24.

  • Associated Press [AP] (2012a) Mixed Results for Obama Openness with Foreign Foes, April 14.

  • Associated Press [AP] (2012b) Cuba Casts Big Shadow Over Summit of Americas, April 16.

  • Associated Press [AP] (2012c) Cuba Rebukes Obama Over Summit Talk Democracy, April 18.

  • Associated Press [AP] (2012d) Obama Argues Against Romney’s “Top-down Economics,” September 22.

  • Associated Press [AP] (2013) Cuba, US Try Talking, but Face Many Obstacles, June 21.

  • Associated Press [AP] (2016) The Latest: White House: Castro Wasn’t Expected at Airport, March 21.

  • BBC (2015) What is Behind the US-Cuba Thaw?, August 14, Available from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-30524560 (Accessed December 5, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Baker, P. (2014) U.S. to Restore Full Relations with Cuba, Erasing a Last Trace of Cold War Hostility, New York Times, December 17, Available from: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/world/americas/us-cuba-relations.html (Accessed November 24, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Barrett, L. (2023) Why is Biden Pursuing a Trump-lite Approach with Cuba?, Newsweek.com, January 20, Available from: https://www.newsweek.com/why-biden-pursuing-trump-lite-approach-cuba-opinion-1775161 (Accessed December 22, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bastian, H., Brenner, P., Kirk, J.M. and LeoGrande, W.M. (eds) (2023) Contemoprary Cuba. The Post-Castro Era (3rd edn), Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Baumgartner, F.R., Jones, B.D. and Mortensen, P.M. (2017) Punctuated Equilibrium Theory: Explaining Stability and Change in Public Policymaking. In C.M. Weible and P.A. Sabatier (eds) Theories of the Policy Process (4th edn), Boulder, CO: Westview, pp 55–101.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Benjamin-Alvarado, J.C. (2019) The Ghost of Helms-Burton: Necessary Course Corrections on the Path to Normalized U.S.–Cuban Relations. In M.J. Kelly, E. Moreno, and R.C. Witmer, II (eds) The Cuba-U.S. Bilateral Relationship. New Pathways and Policy Choices, New York: Oxford University Press, pp 205–23.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Blavoukos, S. and Bourantonis, D. (2012) Policy Entrepreneurs and Foreign Policy Change: The Greek–Turkish Rapprochement in the 1990s, Government and Opposition, 47(4): 597–617.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Blavoukos, S. and Bourantonis, D. (2014) Identifying Parameters of Foreign Policy Change: An Eclectic Approach, Cooperation and Conflict, 49(4): 483–500.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bovens, M. and ‘t Hart, P. (2016) Revisiting the Study of Policy Failure, Journal of European Public Policy, 23(5): 653–66.

  • Bovens, M., ‘t Hart, P. and Peters, B.G. (eds) (2001a) Success and Failure in Public Governance. A Comparative Analysis, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bovens, M., ‘t Hart, P. and Peters, B.G. (2001b) Analysing Governance Success and Failure in Six European States, in M. Bovens, P. ‘t Hart, and B.G. Peters (eds) Success and Failure in Public Governance. A Comparative Analysis, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, pp 12–29.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brenner, P., Kirk, J.M. and LeoGrande, W.M. (eds) (2020) Cuba at the Crossroads, Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.

  • Brummer, K. (2016) “Fiasco Prime Ministers.” Beliefs and Leadership Traits as Possible Causes for Policy Fiascos, Journal of European Public Policy, 23(5): 702–17.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brummer, K. (2021) Advancing Foreign Policy Analysis by Studying Leaders from the Global South, International Affairs, 97(2): 405–21.

  • Brummer, K. (2023) Leadership Trait Analysis, in P.A. Mello and F. Ostermann (eds) The Routledge Handbook of Methods of Foreign Policy Analysis, London: Routledge, pp 238–54.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brummer, K. (2024) Foreign Policy Analysis and Public Policy, in J. Kaarbo and C.G. Thies (eds) The Oxford Handbook of Foreign Policy Analysis, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brummer, K. and Oppermann, K. (2021) Conclusion: Grasping Foreign Policy Change. In J.K. Joly and T. Haesebrouck (eds) Foreign Policy Change in Europe since 1991, Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, pp 311–31.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brummer, K. and Oppermann, K. (2024) Foreign Policy Analysis, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

  • Brummer, K., Harnisch, S., Oppermann, K., and Panke, D. (eds) (2019) Foreign Policy as Public Policy? Promises and Pitfalls, Manchester: Manchester University Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cairney, P. (2018) Three Habits of Successful Policy Entrepreneurs, Policy & Politics, 46(2): 199–215.

  • Calmes, J. and Neuman, W. (2012) Americas Meetings Ends with Discord Over Cuba, New York Times, April 16, Section A, p 6.

  • Capano, G. and Galanti, M.T. (2018) Policy Dynamics and Types of Agency: From Individual to Collective Patterns of Action, European Policy Analysis, 4(1): 23–47.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Carlsnaes, W. (1992) The Agency-Structure Problem in Foreign Policy Analysis, International Studies Quarterly 36(3): 245–70.

  • Carlsnaes, W. (1993) On Analyzing the Dynamics of Foreign Policy Change: A Critique and Reconceptualization, Cooperation and Conflict, 28(1): 5–30.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Carter, R.G. and Scott, J.M. (2009) Choosing to Lead. Understanding Congressional Foreign Policy Entrepreneurs, Durham, NC: Duke University Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Castro Mariño, S.M. and Pruessen, R.W. (eds) (2012) Fifty Years of Revolution. Perspectives on Cuba, the United States, and the World, Gainesville, FL: University Press of Florida.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Charillon, F. (2018) Public Policy and Foreign Policy Analysis, in C.G. Thies (ed.) Oxford Encyclopedia of Foreign Policy Analysis, Volume 2, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp 483–96.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • CNN (2009) Poll: Three-Quarters Favor Relations with Cuba, April 10, Available from: http://edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/10/poll.cuba/ (Accessed November 24, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • CNN (2015) Obama & Putin Clash at United Nations; Obama & Castro to Discuss Cuba Trade Embargo; Trump Unveils Tax Proposal. Aired 4-4:30a ET. CNN Early Start, September 29. Transcript available at Lexis Nexis.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Collier, D. and Mahoney, J (1996) Insights and Pitfalls. Selection Bias in Qualitative Research, World Politics, 49(1): 56–91.

  • Congressional Research Service [CRS] (2022) Biden Administration’s Cuba Policy Changes, August 11, Available from: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11937/4 (Accessed December 22, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Conley, R.F. (2019) “I Too Am a Human”: The Political Psychology of Pakistan’s Former President General Pervez Musharraf, South Asian Survey, 26(2): 93–116.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Crahan, M.E. and Castro Mariño, S.M. (eds) (2016) Cuba-US Relations: Normalization and Its Challenges, New York: Institute of Latin American Studies.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Croco, S.E. (2011) The Decider’s Dilemma: Leader Culpability, War Outcomes, and Domestic Punishment, American Political Science Review, 105(3): 457–77.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cruz, T. (2016) In Cuba, Obama Will Legitimize the Corrupt and Ignore the Oppressed. What’s American About That?, Politico, March 20, Available from: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/obama-cuba-visit-ted-cruz-213749/ (Accessed December 13, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cuhadar, E., Kaarbo, J., Kesgin, B., and Ozkececi-Taner, B. (2017) Personality or Role? Comparisons of Turkish Leaders across Different Institutional Positions, Political Psychology, 38(1): 39–54.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • David, C.-P. (2015) Policy Entrepreneurs and the Reorientation of National Security Policy under the G. W. Bush Administration (2001–04), Politics & Policy,43(1): 163–95.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • DeYoung, K. (2016) How Obama’s Trip to Havana Finally Ended the Cold War, Washington Post, November 18, Available from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/obama-legacy/us-cuba-diplomatic-relations.html (Accessed December 13, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Diamond, J. (2016) Trump Shifts on Cuba, Says He Would Reverse Obama’s Deal, CNN, September 16, Available from: https://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/16/politics/donald-trump-cuba/index.html (Accessed December 20, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Doeser, F. (2011) Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy Change in Small States: The Fall of the Danish “Footnote Policy,” Cooperation and Conflict, 46(2): 222–41.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dunlop, C.A., James, S. and Radaelli, C.M. (2020) Can’t Get no Learning: The Brexit Fiasco through the Lens of Policy Learning, Journal of European Public Policy, 27(5): 703–22.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dyson, S.B. (2006) Personality and Foreign Policy: Tony Blair’s Iraq Decisions, Foreign Policy Analysis, 2(3): 289–306.

  • Dyson, S.B. (2007) Alliances, Domestic Politics, and Leader Psychology: Why Did Britain Stay Out of Vietnam and Go into Iraq?, Political Psychology, 28(6): 647–66.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dyson, S.B. (2018) Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, and the Great Financial Crisis: Leadership Traits and Policy Responses, British Politics, 13(2): 121–45.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dyson, S.B. and Raleigh, A. (2014) Public and Private Beliefs of Political Leaders: Saddam Hussein in front of a Crowd and Behind Closed Doors, Research and Politics, 1: 1–7.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dyson, S.B. and Parent, M.J. (2018) The Operational Code Approach to Profiling Political Leaders: Understanding Vladimir Putin, Intelligence and National Security, 33(1): 84–100.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Faling, M.,Biesbroek, R., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., and Termeer, K. (2019) Policy Entrepreneurship across Boundaries: A Systematic Literature Review, Journal of Public Policy 39(2): 393–422.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Feng, H. (2006) Crisis Deferred: An Operational Code Analysis of Chinese Leaders across the Strait, in M. Schafer and S.G. Walker (eds) Beliefs and Leadership in World Politics. Methods and Applications of Operational Code Analysis, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp 151–70.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Florida International University [FIU] (2008) 2008 Cuba/US Transition Poll. Institute for Public Opinion Research, Florida International University and The Brookings Institution. Cuba Study Group, Available from: https://cri.fiu.edu/research/cuba-poll/2008-cuba-poll.pdf (Accessed November 14, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Florida International University [FIU] (2011) 2011 Cuba Poll, Available from: https://cri.fiu.edu/research/cuba-poll/2011-cuba-poll.pdf (Accessed November 24, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Florida International University [FIU] (2014) 2014 FUI Cuba Poll. How Cuban Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba, Available from: https://cri.fiu.edu/research/cuba-poll/2014-fiu-cuba-poll.pdf (Accessed November, 24 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Florida International University [FIU] (2016) 2016 FIU Cuba Poll. How Cuban Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba, Available from: https://cri.fiu.edu/research/cuba-poll/2016-cuba-poll.pdf (Accessed November 16, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Florida International University [FIU] (2018) 2018 FIU Cuba Poll. How Cuban Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba, Available from: https://cri.fiu.edu/research/cuba-poll/2018-fiu-cuba-poll.pdf (Accessed November 16, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Fouquet, S. and Brummer, K. (2023) Profiling the Personality of Populist Foreign Policy Makers: A Leadership Trait Analysis, Journal of International Relations and Development 26(1): 1–29.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Frisch Aviram, N., Cohen, N., and Beeri, I. (2020) Wind(ow) of Change: A Systematic Review of Policy Entrepreneurship Characteristics and Strategies, Policy Studies Journal, 48(3): 612–44.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gallup (n.d.) Cuba, Available from: https://news.gallup.com/poll/1630/cuba.aspx (Accessed November 15, 2023).

  • George, A.L. (1969) The “Operational Code”: A Neglected Approach to the Study of Political Leaders and Decision-Making, International Studies Quarterly, 13(2): 190–222.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • George, A.L. and Bennett, A. (2005) Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

  • Gibbs, J.F. (2011) US Policy Towards Cuba. Since the Cold War, London: Routledge.

  • Giuliano, M. (1998) The United States’ Embargo and Cuba’s Foreign Relations: Missed Opportunities for Democratization, Democratization, 5(3): 181–99.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gladstone, R. (2017) Trump Administration Defends Cuba Embargo at U.N., Reversing Obama, New York Times, November 1, Available from: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/01/world/americas/cuba-un-us-embargo.html (Accessed December 20, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Glueck, K. (2020) In Florida, Biden Says “I Wasn’t Surprised” by Trump’s Diagnosis, New York Times, October 5, Available from: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/us/politics/biden-florida-covid.html (Accessed December 22, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Goddard, S.E. (2009) Brokering Change: Networks and Entrepreneurs in International Politics, International Theory, 1(2): 249–81.

  • Goertz, G. and Mahoney, J. (2012) A Tale of Two Cultures. Qualitative and Quantitative Research in the Social Sciences, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Goldmann, K. (1982) Change and Stability in Foreign Policy: Détente as a Problem of Stabilization, World Politics, 34(2): 230–66.

  • Gray, P. and ‘t Hart, P. (eds) (1998) Public Policy Disasters in Western Europe, London: Routledge.

  • Guardian (2014) Raúl Castro Hails Improved US-Cuba Relations But Calls for Embargo to Be Lifted, December 17, Available from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/17/raul-castro-hails-cuba-us-relations (Accessed November 16, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gustavsson, J. (1999) How Should We Study Foreign Policy Change?, Cooperation and Conflict, 34(1): 73–95.

  • Haacke, J. (2021) Foreign Policy Entrepreneurs, Policy Windows, and “Pragmatic Engagement”: Reconsidering Insights of the Multiple Streams Framework and the Obama Administration’s 2009 Policy Shift Toward Military-Run Myanmar, Foreign Policy Analysis, 17(3): orab017.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Halperin, M.H. (1974) Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy, Washington, DC: Brookings.

  • Haney, P.J. (2018) Congress and the Politics of the End of the Cuba Embargo, in J.A. Thurber, C.C. Campbell, and D.A. Dulio (eds) Congress and Diaspora Politics. The Influence of Ethnic and Foreign Lobbying, Albany, NY: SUNY Press, pp 167–83.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Haney, P.J. and Vanderbush, W. (1999) The Role of Ethnic Interest Groups in U.S. Foreign Policy: The Case of the Cuban American National Foundation, International Studies Quarterly, 43(2): 341–61.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Haney, P.J. and Vanderbush, W. (2005) The Cuban Embargo. The Domestic Politics of an American Foreign Policy, Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Harris, G. (2015) Obama and Castro Meet a Second Time as Nations Grow Closer, New York Times, September 30, Section A, p 6.

  • He, K. and Feng, H. (2013) Xi Jinping’s Operational Code Beliefs and China’s Foreign Policy, Chinese Journal of International Politics, 6(3): 209–31.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • He, K. and Feng, H. (2015) Transcending Rationalism and Constructivism: Chinese Leaders’ Operational Codes, Socialization Processes, and Multilateralism after the Cold War, European Political Science Review, 7(3): 401–26.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Healy, P. and Zeleny, J. (2007) Novel Debate Format, but the Same Old Candidates – Correction Appended, New York Times, July 24, Section A, p 18.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Healy, P. and Zeleny, J. (2008) Debate Takes on Contentious Air for Democrats, New York Times, February 22, Section A, p 1.

  • Hermann, C.F. (1990) Changing Course: When Governments Choose to Redirect Foreign Policy, International Studies Quarterly, 34(1): 3–21.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hermann, C.F. (ed.) (2012a) When Things Go Wrong. Foreign Policy Decision Making under Adverse Feedback, New York: Routledge.

  • Hermann, C.F. (2012b) What We Do When Things Go Wrong, in C.F. Hermann (ed.) When Things Go Wrong. Foreign Policy Decision Making under Adverse Feedback, New York: Routledge, pp 1–10.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hermann, M.G. (1980a) Explaining Foreign Policy Behavior Using the Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders, International Studies Quarterly, 24(1): 7–46.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hermann, M.G. (1980b) Assessing the Personalities of Soviet Politburo Members, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 6: 332–52.

  • Hermann, M.G. (1984) Personality and Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Study of 53 Heads of Government, in D.A. Sylvan and S. Chan (eds) Foreign Policy Decision Making. Perception, Cognition, and Artificial Intelligence, New York: Praeger, pp 53–80.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hermann, M.G. (2005a) Assessing Leadership Style: Trait Analysis, in J.M. Post (ed.) The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaders. With Profiles of Saddam Hussein and Bill Clinton, Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, pp 178–212.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hermann, M.G. (2005b) William Jefferson Clinton’s Leadership Style, in J.M. Post (ed.) The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaders. With Profiles of Saddam Hussein and Bill Clinton, Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, pp 313–323.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hermann, M.G. (2005c) Saddam Hussein’s Leadership Style, in J.M. Post (ed.) The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaders. With Profiles of Saddam Hussein and Bill Clinton, Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, pp 375–386.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hermann, M.G. (2008) Content Analysis, in A. Klotz and D. Prakash (eds) Qualitative Methods in International Relations, London: Palgrave Macmillan, pp 151–67.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hermann, M.G., Preston, T., Korany, B., and Shaw, T.M. (2001) Who Leads Matters: The Effects of Powerful Individuals, International Studies Review, 3(2): 83–131.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hirschfeld Davis, J. (2015a) Obama Takes His Hopes for Cuba to Summit Meeting, New York Times, April 9, Section A, p 12.

  • Hirschfeld Davis, J. (2015b) U.S. Relaxes the Rules on Dealings with Cuba, New York Times, September 19, Section A, p 9.

  • Hirschfeld Davis, J. (2015c) Year After Cuba-U.S. Thaw, Obama Says Change Will Take Time, New York Times, December 17, Section A, p 6.

  • Hirschfeld Davis, J. (2016a) With Cuba Visit, Obama Gambles on Engagement, New York Times, February 19, Section A, p 14.

  • Hirschfeld Davis, J. (2016b) Amid Thaw, Obama Picks Top Envoy to Cuba, New York Times, September 28, Section A, p 6.

  • Hirschfeld Davis, J. (2016c) Obama Moves to Further Ease Cuba Embargo, New York Times, October 15, Section A, p 1.

  • Hirschfeld Davis, J. and Archibold, R.C. (2015a) Handshake for Obama and President of Cuba, New York Times, April 11, Section A, p 5.

  • Hirschfeld Davis, J. and Archibold, R.C. (2015b) Obama Meets Cuban Leader, Making History, New York Times, April 11, Section A, p 1.

  • Hirschfeld Davis, J. and Cave, D. (2016) Cuba Meeting between Obama and Castro Exposes Old Grievances, New York Times, March 21, Available from: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/22/world/americas/obama-and-raul-castro-to-meet-in-pivotal-moment-for-us-cuba-thaw.html (Accessed December 4, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hirschfeld Davis, J. and Robles, F. (2017) U.S. Ends Special Treatment for Cuban Migrants, New York Times, January 13, Section A, p 1.

  • Hoffmann, B. (2015) Kuba-USA: Wandel durch Annäherung. Hamburg: GIGA.

  • Holsti, K.J. (1982) Why Nations Realign: Foreign Policy Restructuring in the Postwar World, London: George Allen & Unwin.

  • Holsti, O.R. (1976) Foreign Policy Formation Viewed Cognitively, in R. Axelrod (ed.) Structure of Decision. The Cognitive Maps of Political Elites, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, pp 18–54.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Howlett, M. (2012) The Lessons of Failure: Learning and Blame Avoidance in Public Policymaking, International Political Science Review, 33(5): 539–55.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Janis, I.L. (1982) Groupthink. Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes (2nd edn), Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.

  • Jennings, W., Lodge, M., and Ryan, M. (2018) Comparing Blunders in Government, European Journal of Political Research, 57(1): 238–58.

  • Joly, J.K. and Haesebrouck, T. (eds) (2021) Foreign Policy Change in Europe since 1991, Cham: Palgrave Macmillan.

  • Kaarbo, J. (2019a) A Foreign Policy Analysis Perspective on After Victory, British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 21(1): 29–39.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kaarbo, Juliet (2019b) Conclusion: The Promise and Pitfalls of Studying Foreign Policy as Public Policy, in K. Brummer, S. Harnisch, K. Oppermann, and D. Panke (eds) Foreign Policy as Public Policy? Promises and Pitfalls, Manchester: Manchester University Press, pp 218–31.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kaarbo, J. and Thies, C.G. (eds) (2024) The Oxford Handbook of Foreign Policy Analysis, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

  • Kaplowitz, D.R. (1998) Anatomy of a Failed Embargo. U.S. Sanctions against Cuba, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.

  • Keller, J.W. (2005) Constraint Respecters, Constraint Challengers, and Crisis Decision Making in Democracies: A Case Study Analysis of Kennedy versus Reagan, Political Psychology, 26(6): 835–67.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Keller, J.W. and Foster, D.M. (2012) Presidential Leadership Style and the Political Use of Force, Political Psychology, 33(5): 581–98.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Keller, J.W., Grant, K.A., and Foster, D.M. (2020) Presidential Risk Propensity and Intervention in Interstate Conflicts, Foreign Policy Analysis, 16(3): 272–91.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kerry, J. (2018) Every Day is Extra. New York: Simon and Schuster.

  • Kesgin, B. (2013) Leadership Traits of Turkey’s Islamist and Secular Prime Ministers, Turkish Studies, 14(1): 136–57.

  • Kesgin, B. (2020) Turkey’s Erdoğan: Leadership Style and Foreign Policy Audiences, Turkish Studies, 21(1): 56–81.

  • King, P.J. and Roberts, N.C. (1992) An Investigation into the Personality Profile of Policy Entrepreneurs, Public Productivity & Management Review, 16(2): 173–90.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kingdon, J.W. (2011) Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies (updated 2nd edn), Boston, MA: Longman.

  • Kleistra, Y. and Mayer, I. (2001) Stability and Flux in Foreign Affairs: Modelling Policy and Organizational Change, Cooperation and Conflict, 36(4): 381–414.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kornbluh, P. and LeoGrande, W.M. (2019) Opening Cuba—Negotiating History, in M.J. Kelly, E. Moreno and R.C. Witmer, II (eds) The Cuba-U.S. Bilateral Relationship. New Pathways and Policy Choices, New York: Oxford University Press, pp 17–32.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Krauthammer, C. (1990/1991) The Unipolar Moment, Foreign Affairs, 70(1): 23–33.

  • Kruck, A., Oppermann, K., and Spencer, A. (eds) (2018) Political Mistakes and Policy Failures in International Relations, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lacey, M. (2009) In Cuba, Hopeful Tenor toward Obama is Ebbing, New York Times, December 31, Section A, p 6.

  • Laguardia Martinez, J., Chami, G., Montoute, A., and Mohammed, D.A. (2020) Changing Cuba-U.S. Relations. Implications for CARICOM States, Cham: Palgrave Macmillan.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lantis, J.S. (2019) Foreign Policy Advocacy and Entrepreneurship. How a New Generation in Congress is Shaping U.S. Engagement with the World, Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Leiro, S. (2016) The First Scheduled Flight from the U.S. Arrives in Cuba, August 31, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2016/08/31/first-scheduled-flight-us-arrives-cuba (Accessed December 5, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Leites, N. (1951) The Operational Code of the Politburo, New York: McGraw-Hill.

  • Lentner, H.H. (2006) Public Policy and Foreign Policy: Divergences, Intersections, Exchange, Review of Policy Research, 23(1): 169–81.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • LeoGrande, W.M. (2015a) A Policy Long Past Its Expiration Date: US Economic Sanctions Against Cuba, Social Research, 82(4): 939–66.

  • LeoGrande, W.M. (2015b) Normalizing US-Cuba Relations: Escaping the Shackles of the Past, International Affairs, 91(3): 473–88.

  • LeoGrande, W.M. (2016a) No Time to Lose: Navigating the Shoals of the New U.S.–Cuba Relationship, in M.E. Crahan and S.M. Castro Mariño (eds) Cuba-US Relations: Normalization and Its Challenges, New York: Institute of Latin American Studies, pp 17–48.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • LeoGrande, W.M. (2016b) What Trump Misses About Cuba, New York Times, December 1, Section A, p 31.

  • LeoGrande, W.M. (2020) Pushing on an Open Door? Ethnic Foreign Policy Lobbies and the Cuban American Case, Foreign Policy Analysis, 16(3): 438–56.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • LeoGrande, W.M. (2023) US-Cuban Relations. The New Cold War in the Caribbean, in H. Bastian, P. Brenner, J.M. Kirk and W.M. LeoGrande (eds) Contemporary Cuba. The Post-Castro Era, Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, pp 217–27.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • LeoGrande, W.M. and Jiménez, M.R. (2012) U.S.–Cuban Relations: Prospects for Cooperative Coexistence, in S.M. Castro Mariño and R.W. Pruessen (eds) Fifty Years of Revolution. Perspectives on Cuba, the United States, and the World, Gainesville, FL: University Press of Florida, pp 359–73.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • LeoGrande, W.M. and Kornbluh, P. (2014) Back Channel to Cuba. The Hidden History of Negotiations between Washington and Havana, Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Luo, M. (2008) Cuba Is Topic as McCain Continues Attack on Obama, New York Times, May 21, Section A, p 26.

  • Macdonald, J.M. (2015) Eisenhower’s Scientists: Policy Entrepreneurs and the Test-Ban Debate 1954–1958, Foreign Policy Analysis, 11(1): 1–21.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Macdonald, J. and Schneider, J. (2017) Presidential Risk Orientation and Force Employment Decisions: The Case of Unmanned Weaponry, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61(3): 511–36.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Malici, A. and Malici, J. (2005) The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim II Sung: The Last Cold Warriors?, Political Psychology, 26(3): 387–412.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Marsh, D. and McConnell, A. (2010) Towards a Framework for Establishing Policy Success, Public Administration, 88(2), 564–83.

  • Marsh, K. and Lantis, J.S. (2018) Are All Foreign Policy Innovators Created Equal? The New Generation of Congressional Foreign Policy Entrepreneurship, Foreign Policy Analysis, 14(2): 212–34.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • May, P.J. (1992) Policy Learning and Failure, Journal of Public Policy, 12(4): 331–54.

  • Mazarr, M.J. (2007) The Iraq War and Agenda Setting, Foreign Policy Analysis, 3(1): 1–23.

  • McConnell, A. (2010) Policy Success, Policy Failure and Grey Areas In-Between, Journal of Public Policy, 30(3): 345–62.

  • McConnell, A. (2016) A Public Policy Approach to Understanding the Nature and Causes of Foreign Policy Failure, Journal of European Public Policy, 23(5): 667–84.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Meijerink, S. and Huitema, D. (2010) Policy Entrepreneurs and Change Strategies: Lessons from Sixteen Case Studies of Water Transitions around the Globe, Ecology and Society, 15(2): 21.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mintrom, M. (2000) Policy Entrepreneurs and Social Choice, Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.

  • Mintrom, M. (2020) Policy Entrepreneurs and Dynamic Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  • Mintrom, M. and Luetjens, J. (2018) Policy Entrepreneurs and Foreign Policy Decision Making, in C.G. Thies (ed.) The Oxford Encyclopedia of Foreign Policy Analysis, Volume 2, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp 394–411.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mintrom, M. and Luetjens, J. (2019) International Policy Entrepreneurship, in D. Stone and K. Moloney (eds) The Oxford Handbook of Global Policy and Transnational Administration, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp 111–28.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mintrom, M., Maurya, D., and He, A.J. (2020) Policy Entrepreneurship in Asia: The Emerging Research Agenda, Journal of Asian Public Policy, 13(1): 1–17.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mintrom, M. and Norman, P. (2009) Policy Entrepreneurship and Policy Change, Policy Studies Journal, 37(4): 649–67.

  • National Public Radio [NPR] (2014) Transcript: President Obama’s Full NPR Interview, December 29, Available from: https://www.npr.org/2014/12/29/372485968/transcript-president-obamas-full-npr-interview (Accessed November 29, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Navot, D. and Cohen, N. (2015) How Policy Entrepreneurs Reduce Corruption in Israel, Governance, 28(1): 61–76.

  • New York Times [NYT] (2008) About Latin America, November 28, Section A, p 42.

  • New York Times [NYT] (2014a) Mr. Obama’s Historic Move on Cuba, December 18, Section A, p 38.

  • New York Times [NYT] (2014b) The Moment to Restore Ties to Cuba, October 12, Section SR, p 10.

  • Norman, Jim (2016) Majority of Americans View Cuba Favorably for First Time, Gallup, February 15, Available from: https://news.gallup.com/poll/189245/majority-americans-view-cuba-favorably-first-time.aspx (Accessed December 1, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2011) Remarks by President Obama on Latin America in Santiago, Chile, March 21, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2011/03/21/remarks-president-obama-latin-america-santiago-chile (Accessed November 20, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2014a) Barack Obama: Cuba Policy Detente Address, December 17, Available from: https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/barackobamacubapolicychanges.htm (Accessed November 15, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2014b) Year End Press Conference, 19 December, Available from: https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/barackobamafinal2014presser.htm (Accessed November 24, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2015a) Civil Society Forum Address. April 10, 2015, Hotel El Panama, Panama City, Panama, 10 April, Available from: https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/barackobamacivilsocietyforum.htm (Accessed November 21, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2015b) Post Summit of Americas Press Conference, April 11, Available from: https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/barackobamapanamapostpresser.htm (Accessed November 21, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2015c) Summit of the Americas First Plenary Session Address, April 11, Available from: https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/barackobamasummitamericasplenarysession.htm (Accessed November 21, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2015d) White House Welcome Address for Pope Francis, September 23, Available from: https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/barackobamapopefranciswhitehousewelcome.htm (Accessed November 30, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2016a) Weekly Address: A New Chapter with Cuba, February 20, Available from: https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/barackobamaweeklyaddresscubanewchapter.htm (Accessed December 1, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2016b) Remarks by President Obama at U.S. Embassy Meet and Greet—Havana, Cuba. Melia Habana Hotel, Havana, Cuba, March 20, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/03/21/remarks-president-obama-us-embassy-meet-and-greet-havana-cuba (Accessed December 4, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2016c) Address to Entrepreneurs of Cuba, Havana, Cuba, March 21, Available from: https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/barackobamacubaentrepreneurs.htm (Accessed December 4, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2016d) Joint Press Conference with Raul Castro, March 21, Available from: https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/barackobamaraulcastropresser.htm (Accessed December 5, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2016e) Address to the People of Cuba, March 22, Available from: https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/barackobamacubapeoplespeech.htm (Accessed November 22, 2021).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2016f) Post G7 Press Conference in Japan, May 26, Available from: https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/barackobamajapanpostG7presser.htm (Accessed December, 5 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2016g) Address to the Parliament of Canada, June 29, Available from: https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/barackobamaparliamentofcanadaspeech.htm (Accessed December 5, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2016h) Young Leaders of the Americas Initiative Address, November 20, Available from: https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/barackobamaYLAI2016.htm (Accessed December 6, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2017) Final Presidential Press Conference, January 18, Available from: https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobama/barackobamafinalpressconference.htm (Accessed December 6, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obama, B. (2020) A Promised Land, New York: Crown.

  • Özdamar, Ö. (2017) Leadership Analysis at a “Great Distance”: Using the Operational Code Construct to Analyse Islamist Leaders, Global Society, 31(2): 167–98.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Özdamar, Ö. and Canbolat, S. (2018) Understanding New Middle Eastern Leadership: An Operational Code Approach, Political Research Quarterly, 71(1): 19–31.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Özdamar, Ö. and Ceydilek, E. (2020) European Populist Radical Right Leaders’ Foreign Policy Beliefs: An Operational Code Analysis, European Journal of International Relations, 26(1): 137–62.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Pérez, L. (2014) Cuban Americans and US Cuba Policy, in J. DeWind and R. Segura (eds) Diaspora Lobbies and the US Government. Convergence and Divergence in Making Foreign Policy, New York: Social Science Research Council and New York University Press, pp 132–59.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Petridou, E. and Mintrom, M. (2021) A Research Agenda for the Study of Policy Entrepreneurs, Policy Studies Journal, 49(4): 943–67.

  • Pew Research Center (2015) Most Support Stronger U.S. Ties with Cuba, January 16, Available from: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2015/01/16/most-support-stronger-u-s-ties-with-cuba/ (Accessed November 30, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Phillips, K. (2015) The Cuban-American Thaw, Explained, ABC, November 17, Available from: https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/rearvision/the-cuban-thaw/6944116 (Accessed December 5, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Post, J.M. (ed.) (2005) The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaders. With Profiles of Saddam Hussein and Bill Clinton, Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Prevost, G. (2011) The Obama Administration and Cuba: The Clinton Administration Revisited, International Journal of Cuban Studies, 3(4): 311–27.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rabini, C., Brummer, K., Dimmroth, K., and Hansel, M. (2020a) Profiling Foreign Policy Leaders in Their Own Language: New Insights into the Stability and Formation of Leadership Traits, British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 22(2): 256–73.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rabini, C., Dimmroth, K., Brummer, K., and Hansel, M. (2020b) Entscheidungsträger in der deutschen Außenpolitik: Führungseigenschaften und politische Überzeugungen der Bundeskanzler und Außenminister, Baden-Baden: Nomos.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Renshon, J. (2008) Stability and Change in Belief Systems: The Operational Code of George W. Bush, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 52(6): 820–49.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Renshon, J. (2009) When Public Statements Reveal Private Beliefs: Assessing Operational Codes at a Distance, Political Psychology, 30(4): 649–61.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rhodes, B. (2019) The World as it Is. A Memoir of the Obama White House, New York: Random House.

  • Rieff, D. (2008) Will Little Havana Go Blue?, New York Times, July 13, Section MM, p 46.

  • Roberts, N.C. and King, P.J. (1991) Policy Entrepreneurs: Their Activity Structure and Function in the Policy Process, Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 1(2): 147–75.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rodham Clinton, H. (2014) Hard Choices, London: Simon and Schuster.

  • Rodriguez, R. and Targ, H. (2018) Trump’s Cuban Policy as a Metaphor for US Politics, International Critical Thought, 8(4): 596–608.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rosati, J.A. (1994) Cycles in Foreign Policy Restructuring. The Politics of Continuity and Change in U.S. Foreign Policy, in J.A. Rosati, J.D. Hagan, and M.W. Sampson III (eds) Foreign Policy Restructuring. How Governments Respond to Global Change, Columbia, SC: University of South Carolina Press, pp 221–61.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rubenzer, T. (2008) Ethnic Minority Interest Group Attribute and U.S. Foreign Policy Influence: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis, Foreign Policy Analysis, 4(2): 169–85.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rubenzer, T. (2011) Campaign Contributions and U.S. Foreign Policy Outcomes: An Analysis of Cuban American Interests, American Journal of Political Science, 55(1): 105–16.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rubenzer, T. and Redd, S.B. (2010) Ethnic Minority Groups and U.S. Foreign Policy: Examining Congressional Decision Making and Economic Sanctions, International Studies Quarterly, 54(3): 755–77.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rubio, M. (2015) Obama’s Faustian Bargain with Cuba, New York Times, July 8, Section A, p 21.

  • Rutenberg, J. and Zeleny, J. (2008) Obama Seeks to Clarify his Disputed Comments on Diplomacy, New York Times, May 29, Section A, p 18.

  • Schafer, M. (2000) Issues in Assessing Psychological Characteristics at a Distance: An Introduction to the Symposium, Political Psychology, 21(3): 511–27.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schafer, M. and Walker, S.G. (eds) (2006a) Beliefs and Leadership in World Politics. Methods and Applications of Operational Code Analysis, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schafer, M. and Walker, S.G. (2006b) Operational Code Analysis at a Distance: The Verbs in Context System of Content Analysis, in M. Schafer and S.G. Walker (eds) Beliefs and Leadership in World Politics. Methods and Applications of Operational Code Analysis, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp 25–51.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schafer, M. and Walker, S.G. (2006c) Democratic Leaders and the Democratic Peace: The Operational Codes of Tony Blair and Bill Clinton, International Studies Quarterly, 50(3): 561–83.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schafer, M. and Walker, S.G. (eds) (2021) Operational Code Analysis and Foreign Policy Roles. Crossing Simon’s Bridge, London: Routledge.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schafer, M. and Walker, S.G. (2023) Operational Code Analysis, in P.A. Mello and F. Ostermann (eds) The Routledge Handbook of Methods of Foreign Policy Analysis, London: Routledge, pp 255–68.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schneider, M. and Teske, P. (1992) Toward a Theory of the Political Entrepreneur: Evidence from Local Government, American Political Science Review, 86(3): 737–47.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schoultz, L. (2009) That Infernal Little Cuban Republic. The United States and the Cuban Revolution, Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schwab, P. (1999) Cuba. Confronting the U.S. Embargo, New York: St. Martin’s Press.

  • Seelye, K.Q. and Falcone, M. (2007) Obama Says Clinton Is “Bush-Cheney Lite,” New York Times, July 27, Section A, p 19.

  • Sengupta, S. and Gladstone, R. (2016) U.S. Abstains in U.N. Vote on Embargo against Cuba, New York Times, October 27, Section A, p 8.

  • Sesin, C. (2020) Biden Slams Trump on “Abject Failure” on Venezuela, as well as Cuba Policies, NBC News, September 6, Available from: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/biden-slams-trump-abject-failure-venezuela-well-cuba-policies-n1239356 (Accessed December 22, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Shear, M.D. (2013) Obama Reaches Out to Cuba’s Leader, but the Meaning May Elude Grasp, New York Times, December 11, Section A, p 6.

  • Smith, S. (2016) 5 Facts about U.S. Relations with Cuba, Pew Research Center, March 18, Available from: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/03/18/5-facts-about-u-s-relations-with-cuba/ (Accessed December 4, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sprout, H. and Sprout, M. (1957) Environmental Factors in the Study of International Politics, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1(4): 309–28.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • States News Service (23.5.2008) Remarks of Senator Barack Obama: Renewing U.S. Leadership in Americas, May 23.

  • Stolberg, S.G. (2008) Bush Criticizes Democrats Running for President on Trade, Iraq and Cuba, But Not by Name, New York Times, February 29, Section A, p 19.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Stolberg, S.G. and Cave, D. (2009) Obama Opens Door to Cuba, But Only a Crack, New York Times, April 14, Available from: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/world/americas/14cuba.html (Accessed November 22, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sullivan, M.P. (2022) Cuba: U.S. Restrictions on Travel and Remittances. Updated December 15, 2022, Congressional Research Service, Available from: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL31139.pdf (Accessed November 20, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Taysi, T. and Preston, T. (2001) The Personality and Leadership Style of President Khatami: Implications for the Future of Iranian Political Reform, in O. Feldman and L.O. Valenty (eds) Profiling Political Leaders. Cross-Cultural Studies of Personality and Behavior, Westport, CN: Praeger, pp 57–77.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • The Economist (2008a) Time for a (Long Overdue) Change, December 30, Available from: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2008/12/30/time-for-a-long-overdue-change (Accessed November 24, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • The Economist (2008b) End of the Embargo?, November 6, Available from: https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-2009/2008/11/06/end-of-the-embargo (Accessed November 24, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • The Economist (2009) Resistant to Sticks and Carrots, November 19, Available from: https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2009/11/19/resistant-to-sticks-and-carrots (Accessed November 24, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • The Economist (2014a) If Not Now, When?, April 5, Available from: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2014/04/05/if-not-now-when (Accessed November 24, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • The Economist (2014b) At Last, a Thaw, December 17, Available from: https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2014/12/17/at-last-a-thaw (Accessed November 24, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • The Economist (2015) Why the United States and Cuba are Cosying Up, May 29, Available from: https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2015/05/29/why-the-united-states-and-cuba-are-cosying-up (Accessed November 30, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • The Economist (2016a) Cuban Thaw: A History of US-Cuban Relations, March 18, Available from: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2016/03/18/cuban-thaw-a-history-of-us-cuban-relations (Accessed December 4, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • The Economist (2016b) Cubama, March 19, Available from: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2016/03/19/cubama (Accessed December 4, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • The Economist (2017) An End to Wet Foot, Dry Foot, January 21, Available from: https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2017/01/21/an-end-to-wet-foot-dry-foot (Accessed December 6, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • The Economist (2021) The Causes of Cuba’s Uprising Lie at Home, July 15, Available from: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/07/15/the-causes-of-cubas-uprising-lie-at-home (Accessed December, 21 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Trump, D. (2017) Policy of the United States towards Cuba, June 16, Available from: https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-policy-united-states-towards-cuba/ (Accessed December 13, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Trump, D. (2019) Remarks to the Venezuelan American Community, February 18, Available from: https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-venezuelan-american-community/ (Accessed December 13, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Trump, D. (2020) Remarks by President Trump Honoring Bay of Pigs Veterans, September 23, Available from: https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-honoring-bay-pigs-veterans/ (Accessed December 13, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • U.S. Department of State (2010) Cuba Migration Talks, June 18, Available from: https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2010/06/143367.htm (Accessed November 23, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • U.S. Department of State (2015) Remarks at Flag Raising Ceremony, August 14, Available from: https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2015/08/246121.htm (Accessed November 17, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • U.S. Embassy in Cuba (2021) U.S. Announces Designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, Available from: https://cu.usembassy.gov/u-s-announces-designation-of-cuba-as-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism/ (Accessed December 20, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Van Esch, F. and Swinkels, M. (2015) How Europe’s Political Leaders Made Sense of the Euro Crisis: The Influence of Pressure and Personality, West European Politics, 38(6): 1203–25.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Walker, S.G. and Malici, A. (2011) U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.

  • Walker, S.G. and Schafer, M. (2000) The Political Universe of Lyndon B. Johnson and His Advisors: Diagnostic and Strategic Propensities in Their Operational Codes, Political Psychology, 21(3): 529–43.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Walker, S.G. and Schafer, M. (2006) Belief Systems as Causal Mechanisms in World Politics: An Overview of Operational Code Analysis, in M. Schafer and S.G. Walker (eds) Beliefs and Leadership in World Politics. Methods and Applications of Operational Code Analysis, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp 3–22.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Walker, S.G. and Schafer, M., and Young, M.D. (1998) Systematic Procedures for Operational Code Analysis: Measuring and Modeling Jimmy Carter’s Operational Code, International Studies Quarterly, 42(1): 175–90.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Walker, S.G. and Schafer, M., and Young, M.D. (1999) Presidential Operational Codes and Foreign Policy Conflicts in the Post-Cold War World, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 43(5): 610–25.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Walsh, J.I. (2006) Policy Failure and Policy Change. British Security Policy after the End of the Cold War, Comparative Political Studies 39(4): 490–518.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Waltz, K.N. (1959) Man, the State and War: A Theoretical Analysis, New York: Columbia University Press.

  • Weible, C.M., Ingold, K., Nohrstedt, D., Henry, A.D., and Jenkins-Smith, H.C. (2020) Sharpening Advocacy Coalitions, Policy Studies Journal, 48(4): 1054–81.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Welch, D.A. (2005) Painful Choices. A Theory of Foreign Policy Change, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

  • White, N.D. (2015) The Cuban Embargo under International Law, London: Routledge.

  • White House (2009a) Memorandum: Promoting Democracy and Human Rights in Cuba, April 13, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/memorandum-promoting-democracy-and-human-rights-cuba (Accessed November 16, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2009b) Remarks by the President at the Summit of the Americas Opening Ceremony, April 17, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-summit-americas-opening-ceremony (Accessed November 22, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2011) Reaching Out to the Cuban People, January 14, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/14/reaching-out-cuban-people (Accessed November 16, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2013) Remarks by the President at the DSCC Fundraising Reception, November 8, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2013/11/08/remarks-president-dscc-fundraising-reception-0 (Accessed November 22, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2015a) Remarks by the President in State of the Union Address, January 20, 2015, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/01/20/remarks-president-state-union-address-January-20-2015 (Accessed November 30, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2015b) Remarks by President Obama and President Raul Castro of Cuba before Meeting, April 11, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/04/11/emarks-president-obama-and-president-raul-castro-cuba-meeting (Accessed November 15, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2015c) Certification—Report to Congress with Respect to the Proposed Rescission of Cuba’s Designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, April 14, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/04/14/certification-report-congress-respect-proposed-rescission-cubas-designat (Accessed November 30, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2015d) Remarks by President Obama to the United Nations General Assembly, September 28, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/28/remarks-president-Obama-united-nations-general-assembly (Accessed November 30, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2016a) Remarks of President Barack Obama—State of the Union Address as Delivered, January 13, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/01/12/remarks-president-barack-obama-%E2%80%93-prepared-delivery-state-union-address (Accessed December 1, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2016b) Press Briefing by Press Secretary Josh Earnest and Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes, 2/18/2016, February 18, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/02/18/press-briefing-press-secretary-josh-earnest-and-deputy-national-security (Accessed December 1, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2016c) Fact Sheet: United States-Cuba Relationship, March 21, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/03/21/fact-sheet-united-states-cuba-relationship (Accessed November 14, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2016d) Press Briefing by Senior Administration Officials – Havana, Cuba, 3/21/2015, March 22, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/03/22/press-briefing-senior-administration-officials-havana-cuba-3212016 (Accessed December 5, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2016e) President Obama Announces another Key Administration Post, September 27, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/09/27/president-obama-announces-another-key-administration-post (Accessed December 5, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2016f) Statement by the President on the Presidential Policy Directive on Cuba, October 14, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/10/14/statement-president-presidential-policy-directive-cuba (Accessed December 6, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2016g) Presidential Policy Directive—United States-Cuba Normalization, October 14, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/10/14/presidential-policy-directive-united-states-cuba-normalization (Accessed December 6, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2017a) Statement by the President on Cuban Immigration Policy, January 12, Available from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2017/01/12/statement-president-cuban-immigration-policy (Accessed December 6, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2017b) Background Briefing on the President’s Cuba Policy, June 15, Available from: https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/background-briefing-presidents-cuba-policy/ (Accessed December 20, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2017c) Fact Sheet on Cuba Policy, June 16, Available from: https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/articles/fact-sheet-cuba-policy/ (Accessed December 20,2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2018) Remarks by Vice President Pence at First Plenary Session of the Summit of the Americas, April 15, Available from: https://uy.usembassy.gov/remarks-by-vice-president-pence-at-first-plenary-session-of-the-summit-of-the-americas/ (Accessed December 21, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2019) President Donald J. Trump is Taking a Stand for Democracy and Human Rights in the Western Hemisphere, April 17, Available from: https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-taking-stand-democracy-human-rights-western-hemisphere/ (Accessed December 20, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2020) Remarks by President Trump in State of the Union Address, February 4, Available from: https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-state-union-address-3/ (Accessed December 20, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2021a) Fact Sheet: Biden-Harris Administration Measures on Cuba, July 22, Available from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/07/22/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-measures-on-cuba/ (Accessed December 22, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • White House (2021b) Remarks by President Biden at Meeting with Cuban American Leaders, July 30, Available from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/07/30/remarks-by-president-biden-at-meeting-with-cuban-american-leaders/ (Accessed December 22, 2023).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Yang, Y.E. (2010) Leaders’ Conceptual Complexity and Foreign Policy Change: Comparing the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush Foreign Policies toward China, Chinese Journal of International Politics, 3(4): 415–46.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Zeleny, J. (2008) Obama, in Miami, Calls for Engaging with Cuba, New York Times, May 24, Section A, p 15.

  • Ziv, G. (2011) Cognitive Structure and Foreign Policy Change: Israel’s Decision to Talk to the PLO, International Relations, 25(4): 426–54.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

Content Metrics

May 2022 onwards Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 37 37 17
Full Text Views 0 0 0
PDF Downloads 0 0 0

Altmetrics