This article provides a quantitative examination of the link between political institutions and deaths during the first 100 days of the COVID-19 pandemic. We demonstrate that countries with more democratic political institutions experienced deaths on a larger per capita scale than less democratic countries. The result is robust to the inclusion of many relevant controls, a battery of estimation techniques and estimation with instrumental variables for the institutional measures. Additionally, we examine the extent to which COVID-19 deaths were impacted heterogeneously by policy responses across types of political institutions. Policy responses in democracies were less effective in reducing deaths in the early stages of the crisis. The results imply that democratic political institutions may have a disadvantage in responding quickly to pandemics.
Acemoglu, D. and Robinson, J.A. (2012) Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, New York: Crown Books.
Acemoglu, D., Naidu, S., Restrepo, P. and Robinson, J.A. (2019) Democracy does cause growth, Journal of Political Economy, 127(1): 47–100. doi: 10.1086/700936
Ackerman, B.A. (2006) Before the Next Attack: Preserving Civil Liberties in an Age of Terrorism, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Adolph, C., Amano, K., Bang-Jensen, B., Fullman, N. and Wilkerson, J. (2021) Pandemic politics: timing State-level social distancing responses to COVID-19, Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, 46(2): 211–33.
Anderson, R.M., Heesterbeek, H., Klinkenberg, D. and Hollingsworth, T.D. (2020) How will Country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?, The Lancet, 395(10228): 931–4. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5
Baccini, L. and Brodeur, A. (2021) Explaining governors’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, American Politics Research, 49(2): 215–20.
Bellinger, N.M. (2019) Why democracy matters: democratic attributes and human well-being, Journal of International Relations and Development, 22(2): 413–40. doi: 10.1057/s41268-017-0105-1
Bertelsmann Stiftung (2020) Transformation Index BTI 2020: Governance in International Comparison, Verlag Bertelsmann Stiftung, https://www.bti-project.org/en/index/political-transformation.html
Besley, T. (2006) Principled Agents? The Political Economy of Good Government, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Besley, T. and Kudamatsu, M. (2006) Health and democracy, American Economic Review, 96(2): 313–18. doi: 10.1257/000282806777212053
Boin, A., Hart, P. and McConnell, A. (2009) Crisis exploitation: political and policy impacts of framing contests, Journal of European Public Policy, 16(1): 81–106. doi: 10.1080/13501760802453221
Bollyky, T.J., Templin, T., Cohen, M., Schoder, D., Dieleman, J.L. and Wigley, S. (2019) The relationships between democratic experience, adult health, and cause-specific mortality in 170 countries between 1980 and 2016: an observational analysis, The Lancet, 393(10181): 1628–40. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30235-1
Cepaluni, G., Dorsch, M. and Kovarek, D. (2021a) Mobility and policy responses during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, SSRN 3817289, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3817289.
Cepaluni, G., Dorsch, M. and Branyiczki, R. (2021b) Political regimes and deaths in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic: online appendix https://sites.google.com/view/dorsch/research.
Cepaluni, G., Dorsch, M. and Dzebo, S. (2021c) Populism, political regimes, and COVID-19 deaths, SSRN 3816398, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3816398.
Cheibub, J.A., Gandhi, J. and Vreeland, J.R. (2010) Democracy and dictatorship revisited, Public Choice, 143(1–2): 67–101. doi: 10.1007/s11127-009-9491-2
Cheibub, J.A., Jean Hong, J.Y. and Przeworski, A. (2020) Rights and deaths: government reactions to the pandemic, SSRN 3645410, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3645410.
Coronavirus Resource Center (2020) COVID-19 Case Tracker, Johns Hopkins University & Medicine, https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.
Cronert, A. (2020) Democracy, state capacity, and COVID-19 related school closures, APSA preprint, https://preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/article-details/5ea8501b68bfcc00122e96ac.
Dahl, R.A. (1973) Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Dahl, R.A. (1989) Democracy and its Critics, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Dewey, J. (1923) Democracy and Education: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Education, New York: Macmillan.
Dong, E., Du, H. and Gardner, L. (2020) An interactive web-based dashboard to track Covid-19 in real time, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20(5): 533–34.
Dorsch, M.T. and Maarek, P. (2019) Democratization and the conditional dynamics of income distribution, American Political Science Review, 113(2): 385–404. doi: 10.1017/S0003055418000825
Driscoll, J.C. and Kraay, A.C. (1998) Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data, Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4): 549–60. doi: 10.1162/003465398557825
Farvaque, E., Iqbal, H. and Ooghe, N. (2020) Health politics? Determinants of US states’ reactions to COVID-19, Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice. doi: https://doi.org/10.1332/251569120X16040852770342
Fujiwara, T. (2015) Voting technology, political responsiveness, and infant health: evidence from Brazil, Econometrica, 83(2): 423–64. doi: 10.3982/ECTA11520
Gerring, J., Bond, P., Barndt, W.T. and Moreno, C. (2004) Democracy and economic growth: a historical perspective, World Politics, 57(3): 323–64. doi: 10.1353/wp.2006.0002
Gorodnichenko, Y. and Roland, G. (2021) Culture, institutions and democratization, Public Choice, 187(1): 165–95. doi: 10.1007/s11127-020-00811-8
Hadenius, A. and Teorell, J. (2007) Pathways from authoritarianism, Journal of Democracy, 18(1): 143–57. doi: 10.1353/jod.2007.0009
Hainmueller, J., Mummolo, J. and Xu, Y. (2019) How much should we trust estimates from multiplicative interaction models? Simple tools to improve empirical practice, Political Analysis, 27(2): 163–92. doi: 10.1017/pan.2018.46
Hale, T., Petherick, A., Phillips, T. and Webster, S. (2020) Variation in government responses to COVID-19, Blavatnik School of Government Working Paper, 31, 2020–11. Accessed: 7 April, 2020.
Harari, Y.N. (2020) The world after coronavirus, Financial Times, 19 March, 2020.
Heymann, D.L. and Shindo, N. (2020) COVID-19: what is next for public health?, The Lancet, 395(10224): 542–5. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30374-3
Hobbes, T. (1969 [1651]) Leviathan, Menston, Scolar P., 1969.
Hollyer, J.R., Rosendorff, B.P. and Vreeland, J.R. (2014) Measuring transparency, Political Analysis, 22(4): 413–34. doi: 10.1093/pan/mpu001
Jiang, F., Deng, L., Zhang, L., Cai, Y., Cheung, C.W. and Xia, Z. (2020) Review of the clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Journal of General Internal Medicine, 35(5):1545-49. doi: 10.1007/s11606-020-05762-w
Justesen, M.K. (2012) Democracy, dictatorship, and disease: political regimes and HIV/AIDS, European Journal of Political Economy, 28(3): 373–89. doi: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.02.001
Karabulut, G., Zimmermann, K.F., Bilgin, M.H. and Doker, A.C. (2021) Democracy and COVID-19 outcomes, Economics Letters, 203: 109840. doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109840
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. and Mastruzzi, M. (2011) The worldwide governance indicators: methodology and analytical issues, Hague Journal on the Rule of Law, 3(2): 220–46. doi: 10.1017/S1876404511200046
Kavanagh, M.M. (2020) Authoritarianism, outbreaks, and information politics, The Lancet Public Health, 5(3): e135–6.
Kavanagh, M.M. and Singh, R. (2020) Democracy, capacity, and coercion in pandemic response: COVID-19 in comparative political perspective, Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, 45(6): 997–1012. doi: 10.1215/03616878-8641530
Leonard, H.B. and Howitt, A.M. (2010) Organising response to extreme emergencies: the Victorian bushfires of 2009, Australian Journal of Public Administration, 69(4): 372–86. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8500.2010.00695.x
Löblová, O., Rone, J. and Borbáth, E. (2021) Focus on Czechia, Hungary, and Bulgaria, in Greer, S.L., King, E.J., da Fonseca, E.M. and Peralta-Santos, A. (eds), Coronavirus Politics: The Comparative Politics and Policy of COVID-19. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
Maerz, S.F., Lührmann, A., Lachapelle, J. and Edgell, A.B. (2020) Worth the Sacrifice? Illiberal and Authoritarian Practices during Covid-19, V-Dem Working Paper 110, September.
Malesky, E. and London, J. (2014) The political economy of development in China and Vietnam, Annual Review of Political Science, 17: 395–419. doi: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-041811-150032
Marshall, M.G., Gurr, T.R. and Jaggers, K. (2017) Global Report 2017: Conflict, Governance, and State Fragility, Center for Systemic Peace, http://www.systemicpeace.org/vlibrary/GlobalReport2017.pdf
Mill, J.S. (1887) On Liberty, London: Longmans, Green.
Ortiz-Ospina, E., Ritchie, H., Beltekian, D., Mathieu, E., Hasell, J., Macdonald, B., Giattino, C., Appel, C., Rodés-Guirao, L. and Roser, M. (2020) Our world in data COVID-19 testing dataset [Online]. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Patterson, A.C. and Veenstra, G. (2016) Politics and population health: testing the impact of electoral democracy, Health & Place, 40: 66–75.
Persson, T. and Tabellini, G. (2009) Democratic capital: the nexus of political and economic change, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 1(2): 88–126. doi: 10.1257/mac.1.2.88
PRS (Political Risk Services Group) (2019) International Country Risk Guide, Political Risk Services [Online]. https://epub.prsgroup.com/products/icrg/international-country-risk-guide-icrg#
Przeworski, A. and Limongi, F. (1993) Political regimes and economic growth, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7(3): 51–69. doi: 10.1257/jep.7.3.51
Ross, M. (2006) Is democracy good for the poor?, American Journal of Political Science, 50(4): 860–74. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00220.x
Sajadi, M.M., Habibzadeh, P., Vintzileos, A., Shokouhi, S., Miralles-Wilhelm, F. and Amoroso, A. (2020) Temperature and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality for COVID-19, SSRN 3550308.
Schmitt, C. (2005) Political Theology: Four Chapters on the Concept of Sovereignty, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Schwartz, J. (2012) Compensating for the ‘authoritarian advantage’ in crisis response: a comparative case study of SARS pandemic responses in China and Taiwan, Journal of Chinese Political Science, 17(3): 313–31. doi: 10.1007/s11366-012-9204-4
Sebhatu, A., Wennberg, K., Arora-Jonsson, S. and Lindberg, S.I. (2020) Explaining the homogeneous diffusion of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions across heterogeneous countries, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(35): 21201–08.
Sen, A. (2001) Development as Freedom, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Silver, L., Devlin, K. and Huang, C. (2020) Unfavorable views of China reach historic highs in many countries, Pew Research Center, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/10/06/unfavorable-views-of-china-reach-historic-highs-in-many-countries/.
Singer, N. and Sang-Hun, C. (2020) As coronavirus surveillance escalates, personal privacy plummets, The New York Times, 23 March, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/technology/coronavirus-surveillance-tracking-privacy.html.
Sohrabi, C., Alsafi, Z., O’Neill, N., Khan, M., Kerwan, A., Al-Jabir, A., Iosifidis, C. and Agha, R. (2020) World Health Organization declares global emergency: a review of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), International Journal of Surgery, 76: 71–6.
Teorell, J., Dahlberg, S., Holmberg, S., Rothstein, B., Pachon, N.A. and Axelsson, S. (2020) The Quality of Government Standard Dataset, version Jan20, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden. doi: https://doi.org/10.18157/qogbasjan20
The Economist (2020) Tracking COVID-19 excess deaths across countries, The Economist, 23 July 2021, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker.
Truex, R. (2017) The myth of the democratic advantage, Studies in Comparative International Development, 52(3): 261–77. doi: 10.1007/s12116-015-9192-4
UNSTAD (United Nations Statistics Division) (2021) Coverage of birth and death registration – 2021, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/crvs/.
Van der Windt, P. and Vandoros, S. (2017) Democracy and health: evidence from within-country heterogeneity in the Congo, Social Science & Medicine, 194: 10–16.
Weeks, J.L. (2008) Autocratic audience costs: regime type and signaling resolve, International Organization, 62(1): 35–64. doi: 10.1017/S0020818308080028
Welander, A., Lyttkens, C.H. and Nilsson, T. (2015) Globalization, democracy, and child health in developing countries, Social Science & Medicine, 136: 52–63.
WHO (World Health Organization) (2020a) Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): situation report, 72. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/331685
Wigley, S. and Akkoyunlu-Wigley, A. (2017) The impact of democracy and media freedom on under-5 mortality, 1961–2011, Social Science & Medicine, 190: 237–46.
Williams, A. (2015) A global index of information transparency and accountability, Journal of Comparative Economics, 43(3): 804–24. doi: 10.1016/j.jce.2014.10.004
Wittman, D. (1989) Why democracies produce efficient results, Journal of Political Economy, 97(6): 1395–424. doi: 10.1086/261660
Wooldridge, J.M. (2002) Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
May 2022 onwards | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
---|---|---|---|
Abstract Views | 2059 | 1812 | 47 |
Full Text Views | 3663 | 1239 | 85 |
PDF Downloads | 2049 | 361 | 45 |
Institutional librarians can find more information about free trials here