We use individual-level population data to characterise the pathways followed by young people in England who experience custody. We identify a typology of pathways up to age 18 and a separate typology covering ages 19–22. Our results confirm the generally poor prospects among this group, showing 80% to be firmly established as not in employment, education or training (NEET) by age 22. Despite the high level of deprivation in the population considered, prospects are still found to vary with specific markers of disadvantage. Managing to avoid NEET when 16–18 is an important part of the strategy for avoiding NEET when older. This suggests the importance of policy interventions aimed at re-engagement of those who experience custody as a young person.
Abbott, A. and Forrest, J. (1986) Optimal matching methods for historical sequences, Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 16(3): 471–94. doi: 10.2307/204500
Achatz, J., Jahn, K. and Schels, B. (2022) On the Non-Standard routes: vocational training measures in the School-to-Work transitions of Lower-Qualified youth in Germany, Journal of Vocational Education & Training, 74(2): 289–310.
Aizer, A. and Doyle, J.J. Jr (2015) Juvenile incarceration, human capital, and future crime: evidence from randomly assigned judges, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(2): 759–803. doi: 10.1093/qje/qjv003
Anders, J. and Dorsett, R. (2017) What young English people do once they reach school-leaving age: a cross-cohort comparison for the last 30 years, Longitudinal and Life Course Studies, 8(1): 75–103. doi: 10.14301/llcs.v8i1.399
Anderson, O. and Nelson, M. (2021) Technical Report for Education and Labour Market Pathways of Individuals (LEO), London: Department for Education.
Andersson, F.W., Brännstrom, S.G. and Mörtvik, R. (2018) Long-term scarring effect of neither working nor studying, International Journal of Manpower, 39(2): 190–204. doi: 10.1108/IJM-12-2015-0226
Anyadike-Danes, M. and McVicar, D. (2010) My brilliant career: characterizing the early labor market trajectories of British women from Generation X, Sociological Methods & Research, 38(3): 482–512. doi: 10.1177/0049124110362968
Arulampalam, W. (2001) Is unemployment really scarring? Effects of unemployment experiences on wages, Economic Journal, 111(475): F585–F606.
Bayer, P., Hjalmarsson, R. and Pozen, D. (2009) Building criminal capital behind bars: peer effects in juvenile corrections, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(1): 105–47. doi: 10.1162/qjec.2009.124.1.105
Bernburg, J.G. and Krohn, M.D. (2003) Labeling, life chances, and adult crime: the direct and indirect effects of official intervention in adolescence on crime in early adulthood, Criminology, 41(4): 1287–318. doi: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2003.tb01020.x
Bowyer, A., Dorsett, R. and Thomson, D. (2021) The risk of experiencing custody aged 16-18, Education Datalab Blog, https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2021/03/the-risk-of-experiencing-custody-aged-16-18/.
Brzinsky-Fay, C. (2007) Lost in transition? Labour market entry sequences of school leavers in Europe, European Sociological Review, 23(4): 409–22. doi: 10.1093/esr/jcm011
Brzinsky-Fay, C. and Solga, H. (2016) Compressed, postponed, or disadvantaged? School-to-Work-Transition patterns and early occupational attainment in West Germany, Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 46A: 21–36. doi: 10.1016/j.rssm.2016.01.004
Craig, H., Wright, L., Murphy, E., Mayhew, K., Keep, E. and Maguire, S. (2022) NEETS in England, in M. Levels, C. Brzinsky-Fay, C. Holmes, J. Jongbloed and H. Taki (eds) The Dynamics of Marginalized Youth: Not in Education, Employment, or Training Around The World, Abingdon: Routledge, pp 125–55.
Department for Education (2021) Children looked after in England including adoptions, 2019–2020, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/children-looked-after-in-england-including-adoptions/2020, (Accessed: 12 01 2023).
Dorsett, R. and Lucchino, P. (2014) Explaining patterns in the school to work transition: an analysis using optimal matching, Advances in Life Course Research, 22. doi: 10.1016/j.alcr.2014.07.002
Dorsett, R. and Lucchino, P. (2018) Young people’s labour market transitions: the role of early experiences, Labour Economics, 54: 29–46. doi: 10.1016/j.labeco.2018.06.002
Eurofound (2012) NEETs – Young People Not in Employment, Education or Training: Characteristics, Costs and Policy Responses in Europe, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
Everitt, B.S., Landau, S., Leese, M. and Stahl, D. (2011) Cluster Analysis, 5th edn, Chichester: Wiley.
Forrest, C.B., Tambor, E., Riley, A.W., Ensminger, M.E. and Starfield, B. (2000) The health profile of incarcerated male youths, Pediatrics, 105(1 Pt 3): 286–91. doi: 10.1542/peds.105.S2.286
Gregg, P. (2001) The impact of youth unemployment on adult unemployment in the NCDS, Economic Journal, 111(475): F626–F653. doi: 10.1111/1468-0297.00666
Gregg, P. and Tominey, E. (2005) The wage scar from male youth unemployment, Labour Economics, 12(4): 487–509. doi: 10.1016/j.labeco.2005.05.004
Jay, M., McGrath-Lone, L. and Gilbert, R. (2019) Data resource: the National Pupil Database, International Journal of Population Data Science, 4(1), doi: 10.23889/ijpds.v4i1.1101, (Accessed: 12 01 2023).
Kaufman, L. and Rousseeuw, P. (1990) Finding Groups in Data: An Introduction to Cluster Analysis, New York: Wiley-Blackwell.
Laming, H. (2016) In Care, Out of Trouble: How the Life Chances of Children in Care Can Be Transformed by Protecting Them from Unnecessary Involvement in the Criminal Justice System, London: Prison Reform Trust.
Levels, M., Brzinsky-Fay, C., Holmes, C., Jongbloed, J. and Taki, H. (2022) Not in employment, education, or training around the world, in M. Levels, C. Brzinsky-Fay, C. Holmes, J. Jongbloed and H. Taki (eds) The Dynamics of Marginalized Youth: Not in Education, Employment, or Training Around the World, Abingdon: Routledge, pp 1–24.
Levine, J.H. (2000) But what have you done for us lately? Commentary on Abbott and Tsay: sequence analysis, Sociological Methods & Research, 29(1): 34–40. doi: 10.1177/0049124100029001002
Morgan, B.J.T. and Ray, A.P.G. (1995) Non-uniqueness and inversions in cluster analysis, Applied Statistics, 44(1): 117–34. doi: 10.2307/2986199
National Audit Office (2022) Children in Custody: Secure Training Centres and Secure Schools, London: National Audit Office.
O’Rand, A.M. (1998) The craft of life course studies, in J.Z. Giele and G.H. Elder Jr (eds) Methods of Life Course Research: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, pp 52–74.
Quintini, G. and Manfredi, T. (2009) Going Separate Ways? School-to-Work Transitions in the United States and Europe, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Paper 90, Paris: OECD, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs.
Rousseeuw, P.J. (1987) Silhouettes: a graphical aid to the interpretation and validation of cluster analysis, Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 20: 53–65. doi: 10.1016/0377-0427(87)90125-7
Sankoff, D. and Kruskal, J. (1983) Time Warps, String Edits and Macromolecules: The Theory and Practice of Sequence Comparison, Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Schmillen, A. and Umkehrer, M. (2017) The scars of youth: effects of Early‐Career unemployment on future unemployment experience, International Labour Review, 156(3/4): 465–94. doi: 10.1111/ilr.12079
Schoon, I. and Bynner, J. (2019) Young people and the great recession: variations in the School-to-Work transition in Europe and the United States, Longitudinal and Life Course Studies, 10(2): 153–73. doi: 10.1332/175795919X15514456677349
Schoon, I., McCulloch, A., Joshi, H., Wiggins, R. and Bynner, J. (2001) Transitions form school to work in a changing social context, Young, 9(2): 4–22. doi: 10.1177/110330880100900102
Social Exclusion Unit (1999) Bridging the Gap: New Opportunities for 16–18 Year Olds Not in Education, Employment or Training, London: Stationery Office.
Taylor, C. (2016) Review of the Youth Justice System in England and Wales, Cm 9298, London: Ministry of Justice.
Williams, K., Papadopoulou, V. and Booth, N. (2012) Prisoners’ Childhood and Family Backgrounds: Results from the Surveying Prisoner Crime Reduction Longitudinal Cohort Study of Prisoners, Ministry of Justice Research Series 4/12, London: Ministry of Justice.
Wu, L.L. (2000) Some comments on ‘Sequence analysis and optimal matching methods in sociology: review and prospect’, Sociological Methods & Research, 29(1): 41–64. doi: 10.1177/0049124100029001003
Youth Justice Board (2006) Barriers to Engagement in Education, Training and Employment, London: Youth Justice Board, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/353968/yjb-barriers-ETE-report.pdf, (Accessed: 12 01 2023).
Youth Justice Board (2008) Engaging Young People Who Offend, London: Youth Justice Board, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/356204/Final_EYP_source.pdf (Accessed: 12 01 2023).
|May 2022 onwards||Past Year||Past 30 Days|
|Full Text Views||317||317||50|