Expanding Formal Models of Budgeting to Include Environmental Effects
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Earlier conceptualizations of environmental effects on public spending suffer from at least two weaknesses: (1) a failure to treat those factors to which decision-makers might respond under conditions of environmental stress; and (2) a failure to develop formally the notion that relevant environments will differ for different governmental units. In this paper, several formal models of budgetary decision-making are extended to include environmental variables. Three alternative decision-making models are set out which postulate that (1) environmental stress simply produces random fluctuations about predominantly incremental modes of decision-making; (2) the level of environmental stress systematically enters the budgetary decision calculus; or (3) the relative change from one year to the next in the environmental stress conditions of public agencies systematically affects budgeting decisions. A test application of these models is provided with reference to time series budgetary and environmental data for the municipal government of Oslo, Norway. Budgetary data were assembled for each of four levels of budget formulation and review; and different environmental stress variables were recorded for different public agencies. Results indicate that decision-making models which formalize the notion of relative change are most useful for studying environmental stress effects on budgetary decision-making of public agencies and their reviewing agents.
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