Information, peer comparison and social interdependence: theorising the impacts of COVID-19 on Gulf domestic politics
This article theorizes three layers of impacts of the Coronavirus crisis on internal GCC politics, and then identifies potential causal mechanisms operating at each level. A first and primary layer concerns governance, and revolves around the state’s performance in managing the virus outbreak. A secondary level relates to scarcity and inequality, and is linked to the state’s handling of economic and social knock-on effects of the pandemic. A tertiary level is connected to peer comparison, and involves GCC states’ (lack of) coordination of political responses at the regional or sub-regional level. Several key factors emerge from the investigation as potent catalysts for new political dynamics in the Arab Gulf states. One is the unusual availability and clarity of information about state performance surrounding Covid-19, which stands in stark contrast to the general lack of reliable governance indicators for GCC and other MENA countries. Another is the universal nature of the Coronavirus shock, which allows Gulf citizens and residents to make direct comparisons of state performance and policy responses that may reveal a disproportionately negative (or positive) personal or collective outcome. Third, the person-to-person transmission of Covid-19 shatters the traditional social and geographical segregation of Gulf societies, with once-isolated communities now directly and profoundly impacted by each other’s behavior, preferences, and incentives. Finally, variation in resource endowments and political institutions across the GCC precludes easy regional harmonization of post-Covid social and economic policy, once more inviting individual comparison with relatively advantaged or disadvantaged peers in neighboring states.
-
Al-Nakib, F. (2014) Revisiting Haḍar and Badū in Kuwait: citizenship, housing, and the construction of a dichotomy, International Journal of Middle East Studies, 46(1): 5–30.
-
Cafiero, G., Sudetic, B. and March, L. (2020) Lessons learned: Qatar’s COVID-19 response and the ‘Gulf Foreign Labor Model’, Inside Arabia, 26 May, https://insidearabia.com/lessons-learned-qatars-covid-19-response-and-the-gulf-foreign-labor-model/.
-
Ewers, M. and Shockley, B. (2018) Attracting and retaining expatriates in Qatar during an era of uncertainty: would you stay or would you go?, Population, Space, and Place, 24(5): e2134.
-
Fakhro, E. (2020) COVID and Gulf Foreign Policy, in M. Lynch (ed) The COVID-19 Pandemic in North Africa and the Middle East, POMEPS Studies 39, Washington DC: George Washington University, pp 32–4.
-
Foxman, S. (2020) Qatar cuts pay for foreign employees working for government, Bloomberg, 10 June. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-10/qatar-cuts-pay-for-foreign-employees-working-for-government
-
Gengler, J. (2015) Group Conflict and Political Mobilization in Bahrain and the Arab Gulf, Indianapolis, IN: Indiana University Press.
-
Gengler, J. and Lambert, L. (2016) Renegotiating the Ruling Bargain: Selling Fiscal Reform in the GCC, Middle East Journal, 70(2): 321–29.
-
Gengler, J., Shockley, B. and Ewers, E. (2020) Refinancing the rentier state: welfare, inequality, and citizen preferences toward fiscal reform in the Gulf oil monarchies, Comparative Politics, doi: 10.5129/001041521X15903211136400.
-
Gulf Business (2020) Kuwait’s national assembly approves expat quota bill – report, 5 July, https://gulfbusiness.com/kuwaits-national-assembly-approves-expat-quota-bill-report/.
-
Hedges, M. (2020) Authoritarian exploitation of COVID-19 in the GCC, in M. Lynch (ed) The COVID-19 Pandemic, The COVID-19 Pandemic in North Africa and the Middle East, POMEPS Studies 39, Washington DC: George Washington University, pp 35–37.
-
MacDonald, F. (2020) Kuwait doesn’t want to be an expat-majority nation anymore, Bloomberg, 3 June. https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/kuwait-needs-to-slash-expatriate-population-to-30-premier-says
-
Matthiesen, T. (2020) Coronavirus is exacerbating sectarian tensions in the Middle East, Foreign Affairs, 23 March https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2020-03-23/coronavirus-exacerbating-sectarian-tensions-middle-east.
-
Mazaheri, N. (2017) Oil, dissent, and distribution, World Development, 99(C): 186–202.
-
Moshashai, D., Leber, A.M. and Savage, J.D. (2020) Saudi Arabia plans for its economic future: vision 2030, the national transformation plan and Saudi fiscal reform, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 47(3): 381–401.
-
Okruhlik, G. (2011) Dependence, disdain, and distance, in J.F. Seznec and M. Kirk (eds) Industrialization in the Gulf, New York: Routledge, pp 125–42.
-
Shockley, B., Ewers, M., Nardis, Y. and Gengler, J. (2018) Exaggerating good governance: regime type and score inflation among executive survey informants, Governance, 31(4): 643–64.
-
Soubrier, E. (2020a) Covid-19, diversification and the future of food security in the Gulf, Italian Institute for International Political Studies, 9 July, www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/covid-19-diversification-and-future-food-security-gulf-26890.
-
Soubrier, E. (2020b) Gulf humanitarian diplomacy in the time of coronavirus, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, https://agsiw.org/gulf-humanitarian-diplomacy-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/.
-
Young, K. (2020) GCC responds to twin crises with financial rescue packages, Castlereagh, 20 March, https://castlereagh.net/gcc-responds-to-twin-crises-with-financial-rescue-packages/.
-
Zumbrun, J. (2020) World Bank halts report on national competitiveness rankings amid concerns of data manipulation, Wall Street Journal, 27 August.
| May 2022 onwards | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Full Text Views | 14 | 14 | 5 |
| PDF Downloads | 17 | 17 | 7 |
We are a leading social science publisher
committed to making a difference.
Bristol University Press and
Policy Press
bristoluniversitypress.co.uk